Southeast Asia's nuclear power thrust: putting ASEAN's effectiveness to the test?

• Author: Symon, Andrew
• Position: Report

Nuclear power suddenly has come into favour among governments in Southeast Asia as a means of helping solve looming electricity shortages. While just three or four years ago nuclear energy did not feature in the medium- and long-term power development master plans of countries in the region, now Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand have plans for nuclear power generation while Malaysia and the Philippines are studying the option. As yet, there are no commercial nuclear power plants in operation in the region, though there are small research reactors. However, as in other parts of the world, both where there are established nuclear generation industries as in Europe, North America and Northeast Asia and also in regions and countries where there are not, such as in the Middle East, nuclear power's fortunes are on the rise. Nuclear is being turned to as a possible solution to the problem of meeting electricity demand at a time when the cost of the traditional fossil fuels used for power generation, essentially coal and natural gas, are rising steeply, and in ways that mitigate against the large contribution to the greenhouse effect and predicted global warming by the combustion of fossil fuels and their production of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.

But plans and possibilities in Southeast Asia raise a gamut of economic, environmental and security issues and fears. Policymakers have only begun to grapple with these concerns. How, and to what extent, governments in the region go about implementing nuclear power programmes is still far from clear, though first plants are planned to come into operation towards the end of the next decade. This may, in fact, be an ambitious timetable even though the pressures to meet electricity demand are large and growing.

Optimal development from economic, environmental and security points of view would argue for a co-operative approach under the umbrella of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Some suggest that nuclear power in countries in Southeast Asia might be managed and regulated through a central ASEAN nuclear power authority. A guide and model here might be the European experience and the role of Euratom. Managing the development of nuclear power in Southeast Asia will be a major test of the organization's maturity and effectiveness. (1)

This article looks at the rise of nuclear power generation as an option in power expansion plans in Southeast Asia and the arguments for nuclear power and the concerns associated with its development. It then looks at how these might be best met. This leads to the argument for a regional approach under ASEAN. To begin, the region's power demand outlook is examined and why nuclear energy now seems appealing.

Power Demand and the Possible Role of Nuclear Energy

The challenge of meeting power demand growth in Southeast Asia is great. While much international attention is focussed on the huge, if not overwhelming projections, for China and to a lesser extent India, the electricity needs of Southeast Asia over the next two to three decades are also very large when considered in aggregate and also when looking individually at the larger countries and economies. Meeting future power demand on this scale has enormous implications for fuel choice, finance and the environment. And even where ambitious projections are met, on a per capita basis, Southeast Asian power production and consumption will still be low compared to current levels in OECD countries.

As far as fuel is concerned, while Southeast Asia does have reasonably generous energy resources, these are not as abundant as people often think, especially taking into account demand growth. For example, the region has been a net oil importer for some years and this dependency is increasing. Southeast Asia does have significant natural gas reserves, although these are often distant from demand centres and this raises the challenge of putting in place pipeline supply infrastructure. Liquefaction and shipping of gas for markets within Southeast Asia is a possibility but this is an expensive option. Still, plans for liquefied natural gas (LNG) import are underway in Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia from within the region (from Indonesian Papua) and from the Middle East Gulf and Australia. Coal is also fairly abundant in Indonesian Kalimantan and Sumatra and also in northern Vietnam. These three main fuels--natural gas, coal and hydro--provide the energy for the large base load power generation plants that are the mainstay of any power system. Natural gas is also used for mid level and peaking plants, that is, plants providing for short term increases in electricity output to meet increased demand levels at certain times of the day.

But all these fuels can have drawbacks in terms of availability, price and environmental impact. In Southeast Asia, as elsewhere, the rising price of conventional fossil fuels makes nuclear power more competitive and, from the point of view of combating global warming and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, nuclear power has the great advantage of producing minimal carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.

Natural gas is often seen as the best course as gas fired combined cycle plants can operate very efficiently and cleanly. The region has generous gas reserves, and there are enormous reserves of natural gas in Australia and the Middle East which can support import. But development of the domestic pipeline supply infrastructure is proving to be slow and cannot keep pace with demand. As a result, there is increasing reliance on coal in power development planning for base load generation, especially in Vietnam and Indonesia but also in Malaysia and Thailand--despite the strong public opposition to coal in the case of Thailand. Hydropower is another option, especially in the Greater Mekong Sub-region, but again there are fears of environmental damage and dislocation to local communities through poorly planned large-scale hydropower dams.

Alternative and non-traditional energy sources, such as solar and biomass, while offering the prospect of useful supplementary power sources at the margins, cannot be alternatives to large base load power generation. Unless there is a revolutionary reconfiguration of power supply and consumption systems and patterns, there seems no alternative to reliance on large base load power generation.

And so where there are constraints on, or objections to, the use of natural gas, coal and hydro, then nuclear energy, it is argued, is the only alternative. Advocates maintain that nuclear power plants can be cost competitive, fuel supply based on uranium ore is readily available internationally (although no known commercial reserves have been identified in Southeast Asia) and advanced nuclear technology is safe. Finally, it is argued that nuclear power has the most minimal impact on global warming as there are no carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions as by products of generation (although there are emissions associated with the earlier parts of the nuclear fuel chain, for example at the mining and milling stage). (2)

In Asia, the largest existing nuclear power industries are in Japan and South Korea. China is embracing nuclear power and this is where the largest expansion of nuclear power in the region is to take place. It is China that is driving new prospects for the nuclear power industry and uranium suppliers in the mining industry with 100,000 megawatts (MW) of new nuclear capacity proposed over the next two decades.

India has ambitious plans to expand its capacity. Taiwan also has nuclear plants although future expansion is unlikely for as in Japan, there is strong public and local government concern and opposition over nuclear safety. Elsewhere, in China, South Korea and India, opposition to nuclear power expansion appears limited. As far as newcomers are concerned, apart from countries in Southeast Asia, Bangladesh also has plans for nuclear generation. The idea of nuclear power in Australia has been raised over the last eighteen months but overwhelmingly rejected by governments in the context of widespread and deep public opposition.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand have plans to establish their first commercial nuclear generation plants, while Malaysia and the Philippines are considering the option. These plans and interest have come to the fore only over the last three years, although Indonesia did put forward proposals for nuclear generation plants in the mid-1990s. These were abandoned in the wake of the 1997-98 economic and political crisis.

Further back, in the mid- to late-1950s and early 1960s, there were also ambitions to harness nuclear energy for electricity generation and other uses in science, medicine and agriculture but developments remained at the research level. To have a local capability in nuclear energy was especially appealing to countries newly independent of colonial rule as a symbol of their ability to become truly modern countries and master such a technologically sophisticated endeavour. The United States supported their aspirations through the transfer of equipment, nuclear fuel and training under the Atoms for Peace Program, an extensive programme that was established under the Eisenhower Administration to defuse Cold War tensions by encouraging peaceful use of nuclear energy. The first small nuclear research reactors were established in several countries--Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and the then South Vietnam--and local capabilities were fostered through the education overseas of nuclear scientists and technicians. In Thailand today, the government nuclear research centre is known as the Office of Atoms for Peace, established in 1961. In the Philippines, an Atoms for Peace supported research reactor came into operation in 1963. In the former South Vietnam, a research reactor was built under Atoms for Peace in the hill town...