Climate change and Thailand: impact and response.

• Author: Marks, Danny
• Position: Report

In 2010 Thailand faced its worst drought in 20 years resulting in the water level of the Mekong River falling to its lowest level in 50 years. "According to villagers who live along the river in Thailand ... the Mekong [was] really drying. At some point, people seem[ed] to be able to even walk across the river, which has never happened before", said Srisuwan Kuankajorn, co-director of the Thai environmental non-governmental organization (NGO), Terra. (1) According to Thailand's Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, the drought negatively affected at least 7.6 million people in 59 of the country's 76 provinces. According to Kuankajorn, Thais who lived in the north, particularly Chiang Rai, were "in big trouble" because they could not fish, a vital source of income and protein. Jeremy Bird, head of the Mekong River Commission (MRC), added, "It is really a question of very low water levels for communities, drinking supplies for agriculture, and for livestock." (2)

The drought also heightened tensions over water resource management within the region. A coalition of regional NGOs, including Thai NGOs, charged that Chinese dam construction along the upper levels of the Mekong River were causing unnatural water level fluctuations. The Chinese government and international water and some environmental experts, however, believe that climate change was the major factor affecting the amount of rainfall in the Mekong basin. According to Ian Campbell, a senior environmentalist at the MRC, "The wet season started late and ended early last year. This is why rivers such as the Mekong are experiencing low water levels." (3)

As evidenced by the recent drought, climate change is an important issue for Thailand in both the medium and long term. Floods, droughts and tropical storms--which cause numerous natural disasters annually--will only multiply in frequency and intensity. Major climate-induced changes could have severe negative impacts on Thai food production, particularly rice. These adverse impacts, such as droughts and floods, have political consequences too, as they place a greater burden on the government to help those afflicted and to distribute resources evenly. Climate change will most likely also create friction between Thailand and its neighbours over a number of issues such as water management, refugee settlement and energy policy.

Using a scenario-building exercise, three recent studies have predicted the political and social impacts of climate change upon the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia over the next several decades. (4) While numerous studies have forecast the physical impacts of climate change in Thailand, and some have surveyed Thailand's energy sector, none have analysed how these impacts will affect the Thai state and society or have projected whether the country has the capacity to respond to climate change. This paper seeks to address this gap in the literature and, by projecting the negative consequences of climate change, attempts to contribute to thinking about how these consequences can be addressed.

To assess the impact of climate change on Thailand, and how governments will respond to it, this paper is divided into three sections. Summarizing other studies, the first section describes the likely physical impacts of climate change in Thailand. The second section forecasts how these impacts will affect the Thai state and society, focusing on issues such as social change, migration and relations with its neighbours. The third section discusses Thailand's current climate change policies, assesses its current capacity to address climate change and predicts how future political and economic changes will affect the country's capacity. It argues that Thailand's current political economy, characterized by competitive clientilism, narrow coalitions of elite politicians, and fragmented politics, hinders its capacity to address climate change and, that while ongoing political changes will improve that capacity to some extent, it will still be limited in the coming decades. The concluding section offers an overall assessment of the future impact of climate change on Thailand.

Observed and Predicted Climate Change in Thailand

Climate change is set to drastically affect the world, and Thailand will likely be one of the most affected countries given its geography, economy and level of development. Thailand is already experiencing the impacts of global climate change. Thailand's Department of Meteorology reported that the annual mean temperature in Thailand rose by approximately one degree celsius from 1981 to 2007 (see Figure 1). As stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the upward drift is very likely due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by anthropogenic (human-based) activity? According to models developed locally, the mean daily maximum temperature in Thailand will increase by 1.2 to 1.9 degree celsius by 2050. (6) Further, the number of rainy days and the level of precipitation in Thailand has decreased over the last fifty years (see Figure 2).

The decline in annual precipitation has already had an impact upon Thailand, most notably in the Mekong river drought mentioned earlier. At the same time, scientists expect that precipitation events, while shorter in duration and net amount, will increase in intensity in the form of destructive storms and floods.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

As the amount of carbon in the atmosphere accumulates, these two trends--an increase in temperature and decline in annual precipitation--plus others, such as an increase in extreme weather events and a sea-level rise, are expected to accelerate over the next few decades, causing numerous environmental problems for Thailand. That being said, how climate change will impact some of the determinants of precipitation patterns in Thailand, such as tropical cyclones, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and the Asian monsoon, is still uncertain and is being researched and debated by scientists.7 Uncertainties about the future are unlikely to be resolved soon, therefore making it more difficult for policymakers to respond to climate change in Thailand. (8)

Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges

Sea levels are rising globally, having already risen approximately 12-22 cm during the last century, and as a low lying country with its capital close to the ocean, Thailand is extremely vulnerable. According to the IPCC, the main causes of this rise include the expansion of ocean waters due to warmer ocean temperatures and the melting of glaciers and small ice caps. (9) The rate of sea level rise was fastest during the period 1993 to 2003 and IPCC predicts that sea levels will increase by 18 to 60 cm by the year 2100. (10) In Thailand, saline intrusion from the sea has already contaminated some underground water sources, (11) and Yongyuth Yuthavong, the former Minister of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, fears that higher salt levels in the soil from coastal flooding--which will intensify with rising sea levels--will make soils in Thai coastal farms less productive. (12)

The sea level rise during the next few decades will likely intensify coastal flooding. Recent scientific studies argue that climate change is a significant factor in the increasing frequency and intensity of tropical storms during the last 35 years. (13) The IPCC asserts that there is a greater than 66 per cent probability that sea-surface warming will cause tropical storms to become more intense and heighten storm surges during this century. These surges will cause more damaging floods in coastal areas and low-lying areas. (14)

The IPCC also observes that Southeast Asia is one of the two most vulnerable regions in the world to coastal flooding. Areas along the Gulf of Thailand are likely to suffer periods of prolonged flooding because the tidal range is small and the natural water level is very low. This means that large areas of land would be unable to drain. (15) A World Bank study predicts that Thailand's surge zone will increase by 32.7 per cent, the third most in East Asia. (16) Coastal flooding will hit Bangkok and central Thailand the hardest.

A study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) ranked Bangkok as the seventh most vulnerable port city in the world in terms of population exposed to coastal flooding. (17) This is due to the fact that the city is on average only a metre above sea level (although some areas are already below it) and that it is located next to the Gulf of Thailand, which has been rising a quarter of a centimetre annually. To compound the problem, Bangkok is sinking on its own: the enormous amount of water used by the city's residents lowers the water table, causing the layers of clay below to subside. Smith Dharmasaroja, chairman of the Committee of National Disaster Warning Administration, ominously warned in 2007, "We feel that with the ground sinking and the sea water rising, Bangkok will be under sea water in the next 15 to 20 years--permanently." (18)

A small rise in the sea level will also hurt coastal tourism. Climate change erodes coasts and destroys mangroves and coral reefs, which are natural protective barriers of the coast. Without them, waves will move further inland and natural disasters, such as tsunamis and cyclones, will likely damage coastal properties such as hotels and restaurants. (19)

Impacts on Food Production and Food Security

Thailand is one of the world's biggest rice exporters and food producers with over 40 per cent of the population relying on agriculture for their livelihoods. Nevertheless, pockets of malnutrition still exist, particularly in the northeast of the country. Climate change effects such as drought and flooding seriously threaten this economic sector and overall food security of the country. Changes in rainfall will aggravate problems related to water resource...